Idlib is Liberated and Aleppo Secured
In just five days the Syrian opposition has secured Aleppo city from most conceivable threats.
Opposition continued to make key advances on December 1, most importantly clearing out potentially dangerous points of regime control from in and around Aleppo city. The two largest of the besieged regime points inside Aleppo city - the Artillery College and Engineering Academy - both surrendered early in the day and the soldiers bused to Safira. It is unclear what the status of the smaller artillery battalion base is at this moment. However, the potential existence of this last pocket means little since opposition factions were able to sweep through the southern Aleppo countryside as well. Syrian National Army (SNA) groups finished liberated Safira city, after which Fatah Mubin units push on to Khanasir. Khanasir is the last major town on the southern Aleppo highway (the only access to Aleppo city from Hama now that the M5 is in opposition hands). It’s rapid collapse means the regime effectively has no major positions north of Ithriya, in eastern Hama.
Many regime units from the Aleppo city front seem to have retreated to Safira over the previous days, and the opposition’s rapid advance today resulted large regime convoys quickly retreating south. Opposition units ambushed one of these convoys killing dozens of soldiers, while another ambushed convoy resulted in scores of POWs. Despite the opposition’s advances in the Safira countryside today, it appears that some regime fighters are still holed up in part of the Defense Factories, with reports today that the regime conducted airstrikes in support of the besieged forces. However, at least part of the Defense Factories are under opposition control.
On the southern front, Fatah Mubin (FM) units worked to secure their gains in southern Idlib and northern Hama from the day before, while regime forces slowly advanced north from Hama city. Early in the morning of December 1, Fatah Mubin announced the complete liberation of Idlib governorate. All eyes now turned to northern Hama, which appears to have effectively become no-man’s land by the afternoon and evening of November 30. The rapid opposition advance that day seems to have been led by a unit of Fatah Mubin’s ‘Liwa Talha bin Ubeid Allah’ which had long been stationed in the adjacent Jabal Zawiyah region. This unit seems to have taken the initiative to pursue withdrawing regime forces, resulting in the more haphazard advance through the countryside and confusion over which towns had been liberated (a military commander of the unit was killed during this advance near the Hama border). Skirmishes broke out that night in the chaos, with local regime militias pushing opposition fighters back along a line from Qalaat al-Mudiq to Kernaz to Halfaya. Several opposition fighters were captured as they approached Qalaat al-Mudiq thinking it was under their control.
In the morning, pro-regime militias began to advance north from Qomhana, securing Taybat al-Imam as their main forward operating base and from there spreading out to Souran and the string of villages leading to the city of Lataminah. However, at the same time more elite Fatah Mubin units had arrived, brining with them the drones that have come to define this offensive. Heavy fighting broke out in Morek as both sides advanced on the town, but by mid-afternoon the regime had withdrawn and set up positions just north of Souran. Meanwhile, opposition drone operators began harassing regime units, striking gatherings in Taybat al-Imam as well as striking jets in Hama Airport. Among these attacks was an FPV drone strike on the car of Hama’s Military Intelligence chief, Brigadier Uday Ghossa, making him the second Military Intelligence branch director killed in the offensive.
Frontlines solidify (for now)
The frontlines may be starting to solidify now. In the east, regime forces appear to have withdrawn entirely from Khanasir to Ithriya, effectively leaving southeast Aleppo empty. However, this is sparse, mostly desert terrain and while the opposition may official take control of more parts of it, there is little strategic use of the space until Ithriya.
In Hama, clashes have been focused on three fronts. Opposition forces in Kafr Zita have been attempting to advance south on Lataminah, who’s status is unclear but appears contested (a local pro-regime civilian posted a rough map of control in the evening which showed the city controlled by neither side). With Morek secure, the opposition is now pushing south along the eastern axis, first liberating Ma’an and then Kawkab which puts them just two miles east of Souran. Opposition forces also advanced east of here without much apparent resistance. However, at night regime forces posted videos of them entering the village of Samra, east of Kawkab, claiming that the opposition had withdrawn. To the north, opposition units spent the day clearing the villages of Jabal Shashbo. Securing this mountain range is key for any future attack on Qalaat al-Mudiq and moving in the Sahel al-Ghab.
Regime tries to rebuild its forces
With these lines now established the regime continues to send units north. The Syrian Army’s Chief of Staff, Lt General Abdul Karim Ibrahim was filmed meeting commanders in Qomhana, the first sign of senior army leadership’s direct involvement since the offensive began. Videos throughout the day showed heavy armor of the 4th Division’s 42nd Brigade (also known as the Ghaith Forces) deploy north of Hama city and launching heavy rockets from their indigenous “Golan” launchers at opposition positions. Regime-affiliated media also broadcast a video from the top of Jabal Zain al-Abidin - the strategic mountain base just north of Hama city - showing army vehicles arriving and the launch of Grad rockets on the towns below.
While the army attempts to reorganize, Alawite militias continue to mobilize. In the Alawite town of Rabia - famous for the number of regime ‘martyrs’ it has sacrificed - announcements were made for new “volunteer contracts” with two regime-affiliated militias in the town that promised “very high pay". Pro-regime Facebook pages have also boasted of “thousands” of men from coastal regions flocking to join the National Defense Forces, a major pro-regime militia network, over the past two days. While one former NDF member told the author that this was largely propaganda, pictures have emerged from some NDF centers showing groups of either new recruits or non-active duty members gathering.
The opposition now finds itself in an eerily reminiscent position as during the infamous annual Hama spring offensives of the past, when opposition coalitions repeatedly tried to break through to Hama city but were stopped short by this same wall of villages. Now, however, the opposition has massive momentum and is much better armed and organized. As long as the regime or Russian air forces to do begin to seriously strike this frontline, opposition units should be able to hold their positions and slowly attrite regime forces with their drones. With the regime pushed back all the way to Ithriya in the east, Fatah Mubin may try to advance in a wide eastward flank as well, avoiding the small wall of mountains north of Hama that have long protected the city. Other options include simply holding the line here and opening a new front on the Sahel al-Ghab and Latakia, threatening the heart of regime control once and for all. Regardless, it seems likely that the battle will slow now.
Meanwhile, opposition forces have secured Aleppo city and a massive swathe of cities that have been decimate by years of regime attacks and systemic looting. With the frontlines pushed so far south, the local governments in northwest Syria will be able to begin the long process of reconstruction and re-housing hundreds of thousands of displaced people currently living in tents.